Appraise The Situation

To win a hundred victories in a hundred
battles is not the hallmark of skill. The acme
of skill is to subdue the enemy without even
fighting.
—The Art of War

One who excels in warfare does not await the deployment of forces. One who excels at eliminating the misfortunes of people manages them before they appear.

Conquering the enemy means being victorious over the formless. The superior fighter does not engage in battle. Thus one who fights and attains victory in front of naked blades is not a good general. One who makes preparations after the battle is not a superior Sage!
—The Six Secret Teachings

You start with an idea—a notion—about something you want to do or something you want to get or someone you want to become. Before you take action or even make an action plan, you should first take a moment and see if it’s worth it. To borrow a business term, you need to do a “feasibility study.” You need to gather as much quality information as you can and roughly estimate the feasibility of the project.

Or in terms of conflict, this is an initial “sizing up” of the opponent in the environment. For instance, the annoying loudmouth at the bar often has a crew to back him up, so you might want to think twice before telling him that he is an annoying loudmouth.

You must answer “Yes” to 3 questions (or maybe 2 out of 3) to move past this initial stage when considering any action.

1. Are there definite advantages to be gained?
2. Is my defense solid?
3.Is there is a high probability of victory?

1.There are definite advantages to be gained.

Do not move unless there are definite
advantages to be gained; do not use troops
unless you can succeed; do not fight unless
you are in danger.
—The Art of War

Don’t allow yourself to get pulled into a conflict that you are not suited, or ready, for due to emotional reasons. One of the most difficult things in life is to control your emotions. To achieve this control, we must be ever vigilant.

A ruler must not start a war out of anger;

A general must not fight a battle out of resentment. Engage only when it is in theinterest of the State;

Cease when it is to its detriment.

—The Art of War

2.Your defense is solid

In ancient times, those adept at warfare first
made themselves unbeatable and waited for
opportunities to defeat the enemy.
—The Art of War

You can think of “defense” as “worst case scenario” thinking. If I pursue this course of action, what is the
worst thing that can happen?

Sometimes it’s the best course of action to work “bottom-up.” You figure out what the worst thing is that can happen and then you continually work to make that worst case scenario slightly better. You keep working at improving your “base rate” until there is a relatively low margin for “failure.”

3.There is a high probability of victory

There are rarely things in life that are one hundred percent certain, but strategy and strategic advantage can dramatically increase the odds of a certain outcome.

Those that the ancients referred to as excelling in warfare conquered those who were easy to conquer. Thus the victories of those that excelled in warfare were not marked by fame for wisdom or courageous achievement. Thus their victories were free from error. One who is free from error directs his measures toward certain victory, conquering those who are already defeated.
—The Art of War

If you choose a course of action where the odds are highly stacked in your favor, your victory will be “free from error”.

So, how do you go about determining the feasibility of a proposed course of action? There is one “quick and dirty” method that will pretty much get to the heart of the matter right away.

He who has a thorough knowledge of himself and the enemy is bound to win in all battles. He who knows himself
but not the enemy has only a fifty percent chance of winning. He who does not know himself or the enemy is bound to perish in all battles.
—The Art of War

You should also factor in external variables as much as possible.

Know your enemy, know yourself, and your victory will not be threatened. Know the terrain, know the weather, and your victory will be complete.
—The Art of War

You can do a quick appraisal of the situation by examining your strengths and weaknesses vis-à-vis the competition in that particular context.